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        接下來三個月美股堪憂,明年也沒指望

        接下來三個月美股堪憂,明年也沒指望

        Will Daniel 2022-11-28
        專家認為,隨著美國持續加息,標準普爾500指數將在接下來的三個月里跌至3,600點,跌幅約為10%。

        紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)里的一名交易員。圖片來源:MICHAEL NAGLE/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

        盡管今年華爾街對經濟給出了很多衰退預期,不過高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)的分析師們仍然認為,美國經濟的“軟著陸”是有可能實現的。

        但這并不意味著股市投資者們可以開始慶祝了。

        由高盛集團的美國首席證券策略師大衛·科斯汀領導的證券研究團隊在上周指出,隨著美國持續加息,標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)將在接下來的三個月里跌至3,600點,跌幅約為10%。

        科斯汀和他的團隊還表示,在本輪下跌后,到2023年年底,預計標準普爾500指數有望恢復到4,000點,也就是大約與現今的水平相同。

        他們的預測是基于美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的抗通脹之戰將于明年5月結束的預期,只要美聯儲不再加息,即便全球經濟增長陷入停滯,美國證券價格也依然會從低位回升。

        為對抗近40年來最嚴重的惡性通脹,美聯儲今年已經六次加息了。從今年10月開始,連續加息的效果初步顯現,美國的CPI同比增長率從6月最高的9.1%下降至7.7%。

        科斯汀在11月21日的一份研究報告中指出:“我們的經濟學家預計,到2023年年初,通脹的減速將愈發明顯,美聯儲將降低加息幅度,并最終停止緊縮政策?!?/p>

        但與此同時,由于企業界普遍存在營收增長乏力和較大的盈利壓力,科斯汀團隊也表示,他們預計2023年“股市帶來的痛苦會減少,但仍然不會有什么收益”。

        科斯汀團隊還警告道,雖然他們預計明年美股市場表現趨平,但股市仍然有一個重要的風險因素——那就是經濟衰退。

        他們在報告中指出:“我們的趨平假設是有條件的,但是如果出現經濟衰退,企業收益就會大幅下降,投資者應該對此保持謹慎?!?/p>

        “明顯的風險”

        據全美商業經濟協會(National Association for Business Economics)的調查顯示,98%的受訪企業首席執行官預計美國經濟將在18個月內出現衰退。75%的受訪者認為美國經濟已經處于衰退之中——就連埃隆·馬斯克這樣的億萬富翁也認同這一點。

        不過高盛集團仍然認為,美國經濟后勁很強,能夠抵御住這次風暴。盡管該公司的分析師也承認,經濟衰退“仍然是一個明顯的風險?!?/p>

        科斯汀團隊認為,如果美國真的陷入了經濟衰退,那么明年企業收益就將下降11%左右。屆時標準普爾500指數最低有可能跌至3,150點(跌幅達22%)。

        那么,市場會在什么時候觸底呢?科斯汀團隊并未對此做出預測。不過他們認為,當經濟增長數據最差時,股市通常就會觸底。

        比如他們指出,在自二戰以來的12次經濟衰退中,標準普爾500指數“經?!睍贗SM制造業指數(ISM Manufacturing Index,一個衡量制造業經濟活動的指標)跌至周期性低點的幾個月內觸底。

        最后,科斯汀團隊認為,由于企業回購股票數量減少,加之散戶建倉減少,明年市場對股票的興趣將會減弱,而這也會打擊股價。

        他們在報告中稱:“十多年來,股票回購一直是股票需求最大和最持續的來源,但明年這種需求將會減弱?!彼麄冾A計,明年企業的回購將同比下降10%。

        高盛集團還預計,明年將成為自2018年以來散戶投資者首個凈賣出股票的年度,股市的流出資金預計將達到1,000億美元。(財富中文網)

        譯者:樸成奎

        盡管今年華爾街對經濟給出了很多衰退預期,不過高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)的分析師們仍然認為,美國經濟的“軟著陸”是有可能實現的。

        但這并不意味著股市投資者們可以開始慶祝了。

        由高盛集團的美國首席證券策略師大衛·科斯汀領導的證券研究團隊在上周指出,隨著美國持續加息,標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)將在接下來的三個月里跌至3,600點,跌幅約為10%。

        科斯汀和他的團隊還表示,在本輪下跌后,到2023年年底,預計標準普爾500指數有望恢復到4,000點,也就是大約與現今的水平相同。

        他們的預測是基于美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的抗通脹之戰將于明年5月結束的預期,只要美聯儲不再加息,即便全球經濟增長陷入停滯,美國證券價格也依然會從低位回升。

        為對抗近40年來最嚴重的惡性通脹,美聯儲今年已經六次加息了。從今年10月開始,連續加息的效果初步顯現,美國的CPI同比增長率從6月最高的9.1%下降至7.7%。

        科斯汀在11月21日的一份研究報告中指出:“我們的經濟學家預計,到2023年年初,通脹的減速將愈發明顯,美聯儲將降低加息幅度,并最終停止緊縮政策?!?/p>

        但與此同時,由于企業界普遍存在營收增長乏力和較大的盈利壓力,科斯汀團隊也表示,他們預計2023年“股市帶來的痛苦會減少,但仍然不會有什么收益”。

        科斯汀團隊還警告道,雖然他們預計明年美股市場表現趨平,但股市仍然有一個重要的風險因素——那就是經濟衰退。

        他們在報告中指出:“我們的趨平假設是有條件的,但是如果出現經濟衰退,企業收益就會大幅下降,投資者應該對此保持謹慎?!?/p>

        “明顯的風險”

        據全美商業經濟協會(National Association for Business Economics)的調查顯示,98%的受訪企業首席執行官預計美國經濟將在18個月內出現衰退。75%的受訪者認為美國經濟已經處于衰退之中——就連埃隆·馬斯克這樣的億萬富翁也認同這一點。

        不過高盛集團仍然認為,美國經濟后勁很強,能夠抵御住這次風暴。盡管該公司的分析師也承認,經濟衰退“仍然是一個明顯的風險?!?/p>

        科斯汀團隊認為,如果美國真的陷入了經濟衰退,那么明年企業收益就將下降11%左右。屆時標準普爾500指數最低有可能跌至3,150點(跌幅達22%)。

        那么,市場會在什么時候觸底呢?科斯汀團隊并未對此做出預測。不過他們認為,當經濟增長數據最差時,股市通常就會觸底。

        比如他們指出,在自二戰以來的12次經濟衰退中,標準普爾500指數“經?!睍贗SM制造業指數(ISM Manufacturing Index,一個衡量制造業經濟活動的指標)跌至周期性低點的幾個月內觸底。

        最后,科斯汀團隊認為,由于企業回購股票數量減少,加之散戶建倉減少,明年市場對股票的興趣將會減弱,而這也會打擊股價。

        他們在報告中稱:“十多年來,股票回購一直是股票需求最大和最持續的來源,但明年這種需求將會減弱?!彼麄冾A計,明年企業的回購將同比下降10%。

        高盛集團還預計,明年將成為自2018年以來散戶投資者首個凈賣出股票的年度,股市的流出資金預計將達到1,000億美元。(財富中文網)

        譯者:樸成奎

        Despite a parade of recession predictions from Wall Street this year, Goldman Sachs’ strategists still believe a “soft landing” is likely.

        But that doesn’t mean stock market investors should celebrate.

        The 153-year-old investment bank’s equity research team, led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, said last week that they believe the S&P 500 will drop roughly 10% to 3600 over the next three months as interest rates rise.

        After that, Kostin and his team made the case that the blue-chip index will finish 2023 at 4000—roughly the same level it closed at today.

        Their argument is based on the idea that the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle will end by May of next year, which will help boost equity prices from their lows even as global economic growth stalls.

        The Fed has raised rates six times this year to fight inflation not seen since the early 1980s. In October, the results of its work started to show when year-over-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), fell to 7.7%, a significant drop from its 9.1% June peak.

        “Our economists expect by early 2023 it will become clear that inflation is decelerating and the Fed will reduce the magnitude of hikes and eventually cease tightening,” Kostin wrote in a November 21 research note.

        But at the same time, with a lack of corporate earnings growth on the horizon and company profit margins facing pressure, Kostin and his team said they “expect less pain but also no gain” for stocks in 2023.

        And they warned there is one key risk to their flat-year for stocks thesis—a recession.

        “[A] flat return under our base case and [a] large downside in a recession means investors should remain cautious,” they wrote.

        A “distinct risk”

        Here are the facts. Some 98% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months and 72% of economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession within the next year. Meanwhile, 75% of voters believe we’re already in a recession—and billionaires like Elon Musk agree.

        Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the storm, even if its analysts admit a serious economic downturn “remains a distinct risk.”

        If a recession does hit, Kostin and his team argue that corporate earnings would fall 11% next year. For the S&P 500, that would mean a drop to 3150 (-22%) at the low point of the recession.

        When is that low point? Kostin and his team didn’t make that forecast but argued that when economic growth data is at its worst, markets typically hit bottom.

        They noted, for instance, that in the 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 has “often” bottomed within a few months of the cycle-low of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is a gauge of economic activity in the manufacturing sector.

        Finally, Kostin and his team noted that there will be less appetite for stocks next year due to a reduced number of corporate buybacks, as well as less stock buying among retail investors, which could hurt share prices.

        “Buybacks have been the largest and most consistent source of demand for shares for more than 10 years but demand will soften in 2023,” they wrote, predicting a 10% year-over-year decline in corporate buybacks.

        Goldman also expects households to be net sellers of stocks for the first time since 2018 next year, with estimated outflows of $100 billion.

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